07/06/2026

A series of M-class flares - all from Region 4479 - pushed solar activity to high levels this week. The largest of the flares was an M3.5 on July 1.
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An earlier flare from this region, M1.3 accompanied by a 1N H-alpha flare which peaked late July 1, appears to have been associated with dimming and a coronal mass ejection (CME) first identified in CCOR-1 imagery. Initial analysis suggests the CME has an Earth-directed component, although the speed derived from the available imagery was only 300-450 km/s. Further analysis is needed to increase confidence.
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Flux emergence and some consolidation around the leader and trailer spots was observed in Region 4479 during the period. Region 4478 produced an M8.5/2b flare on July 1 following occasional C-class flaring. This region also exhibited flux emergence in the intermediate spots and around the leader spot. Finally, Region 4480 was quiescent although some intermediate spots developed.
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Solar activity is likely to decrease to moderate levels (R1-R2, minor-moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-strong), particularly from Region 4479.
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Solar wind parameters were enhanced with CME passage. Solar wind speeds have ranged from approximately 360 - 425 km/s. The CME from June 30 is expected to arrive early on July 3, bringing disturbed solar wind conditions that are expected to last into July 4. There is enough uncertainty around the CME timing that an arrival mid-to-late on July 2 is possible.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, July 2, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

Near the extensive active region AR4478, which the Solar Orbiter had been observing for several days before it rose on the southeastern limb of the solar disk, a small region, AR4479, was initially discovered. Both regions grew rapidly in the following days, while the configuration of their magnetic fields indicated nearby increased eruptive activity. High-energy flares occurred primarily on and after June 30, while some were accompanied by CMEs.

Because the CMEs occurred near the solar central meridian, Earth was strongly affected by an intensified solar wind. Shortwave propagation conditions were favorable during the so-called positive phase of the disturbance on June 30, but very unfavorable during the negative phase on July 1. A similar pattern may recur in the coming days!

The predicted Planetary A Index for July 7 to July 12 is 14, 5, 5, 12, 15, 12, and 8, with a mean of 10.1. The predicted Planetary K Index is 4, 2, 2, 4, 4, 4, and 3, with a mean of 3.3. Predicted 10.7 centimeter flux is 130, 125, 125, 125, 120, 125, and 120, with a mean of 124.3.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1]ÿand the ARRL Technical InformationÿService web page at,ÿhttp://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. Forÿan explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3]ÿ. Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at,ÿhttp://k9la.us/[4]ÿ.

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002ÿQST.


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
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þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/10/2026

Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M1.5/1N flare on July 8 from Region 4482.

There are currently five numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4482 demonstrated continued growth and developed a delta spot within its trailing spot group. Region 4485 displayed new flux emergence. Regions 4486 and 4487 were newly numbered during the period. Region 4481 was stable and remained an unremarkable unipolar group.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through July 11, with a high chance for M-class (R1-R2/minor-moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3/strong and greater) events. This flare probability is almost entirely due to the complexity and potential of Region 4482.

Solar wind parameters reflected near ambient background conditions. Solar wind speeds were generally near 400 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector.

Enhancements are anticipated to begin on July 9 and continue through July 11 with the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS).

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, July 9, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

The power flux of solar radio noise at a frequency of 2800 MHz (at a wavelength of 10.7 cm), which is measured precisely every day at noon local time in Penticton, Canada, and is referred to as the "solar flux," remains at a relatively low level. The reason is that the number of observed sunspot groups on the solar disk dropped to just three on July 7, the lowest number recorded during a single solar rotation (the following day, their number increased to five). The largest active region, NOAA 4482, which we observe in the southeast of the solar disk, has not changed significantly in size and continues to produce moderate-intensity flares on a regular basis. All three coronal holes are currently relatively far from it. The intensity of the solar wind is changing only slightly; periods of increased geomagnetic activity alternate with quiet days, making it impossible to accurately predict future developments.

A more pronounced increase in solar activity is expected in the second half of July (with a gradual increase in solar flux up to 180 s.f.u.). More significant geomagnetic activity can be expected if major solar flares occur, especially if they occur near or west of the central meridian. This is likely to happen sometime in the second half of July.

The predicted Planetary A Index for July 11 to 17 is 12, 8, 5, 5, 5, 10, and 8, with a mean of 7.6. The predicted Planetary K Index is 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 3, and 3, with a mean of 2.7. Predicted 10.7 centimeter flux is 125, 120, 125, 130, 135, 135, and 135, with a mean of 129.3.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1]ÿand the ARRL Technical InformationÿService web page at,ÿhttp://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. Forÿan explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3]ÿ. Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at,ÿhttp://k9la.us/[4]ÿ.

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002ÿQST.


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS